TRUMP AND NETANYAHU: BUILD UP and COUNTDOWN to ATTACK
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In a recent edition of the podcast, Honestly with Bari Weiss, both Ms. Weiss and her guest Niall Ferguson expressed the near universal surprise at Iran’s sudden strike on Israel. Ms. Weiss noted: “I think of all of the astonishing aspects of this, the shock and surprise of it being one of them.” Mr. Ferguson added, “I fully, freely admit to having fallen for the story that the Iranians in Oman, that was a nice little bit of deception and it allowed a surprise attack to happen on Friday.”
Readers of this On Wealth and Progress newsletter, however, were not so shocked and surprised. My June 8th post, “The Way Forward – Part 2: Russia, Iran and China” included the following observation, “If Iran refuses to dismantle its nuclear facilities, it seems highly likely that Israel will militarily do the job for them.”
To briefly recount the events that followed:
June 9: Trump and Netanyahu discussed Iran and it’s nuclear program by phone.
June 10: The U.S. started to remove non-essential personnel from the Middle East.
June 12: Trump’s 60-day negotiating deadline lapsed and Israel attacked Iran.
Recent commentary has been dominated by two enormous questions: What has the working relationship between Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu been like as events led to Israel’s attack on Iran. And: Where do we go from here? Last night, the second question was answered in dramatic fashion when B-2 stealth bombers dropped bunker-busting bombs on three of Iran’s nuclear development facilities.
Understanding the events leading up to this historic development reveals how we came to this point. In addition, reviewing this history sheds light on other important matters such as the campus protests that continue to cause so much controversy and the most relevant historical parallel for the current conflict.
So, let’s begin with a brief review of the build up to the attacks, beginning with the Abraham Accords.
BUILD UP TO THE ATTACK
September 15, 2020 - THE ABRAHAM ACCORDS: Signed during Trump’s first administration, the Abraham Accords represented a groundbreaking transition from what had long been an “Israel against the Arab World” paradigm to a new alliance between Arab countries who wanted to tie their diplomatic, security and economic interests to both Israel and the United States while also opposing Iran and it’s terrorist proxy organizations.
In addition to Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco all signed the Abraham Accords.
October 7, 2023 - HAMAS ATTACKS ISRAEL: By 2023, there were many indications, including comments from Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman himself, that Saudi Arabia was close to joining the Abraham Accords. While far from having the largest population in the region (that honor goes to Egypt), Saudi Arabia possesses the region’s largest oil reserves and, along with Turkey, by far and away the largest economic resources in the Middle East. Of critical importance, Saudi’s GDP is more than double Iran’s and over the past decade, under a new generation of leadership, the Saudi’s have started to move in a decidedly more socially progressive direction than has Iran.
Given all of these factors, if the Saudis had joined the Abraham Accords it would have monumentally shifted the balance of power in the Middle East. In short, it would have dealt a potentially crushing blow to socially conservative Iran and its and consistently hostile Axis of Resistance, which includes Hamas and Hezbollah.
Iran’s desire to enflame Arab hostilities against Israel and thereby prevent Saudi Arabia from joining the Abraham Accords is, in my opinion, by far the most plausible explanation for Hamas’s nearly suicidal decision to not only brutally attack Israel on October 7, but to also focus on civilian targets, and to film and publicize many of the related atrocities. In doing so, Iran and Hamas knew that Israel would strike back with extraordinary force, that thousands of Arabs living in the Gaza strip (who Hamas was supposed to be the guardian of) would serve as innocent human sacrifices, and that this would rekindle deep anti-Israeli resentment; all of which would make it nearly impossible, at least for a time, for Saudi Arabia to formally align with Israel.
As I’ve noted in previous posts, our experience in the Iraq War of the early 2000s has justifiably shaken our foreign policy confidence and has provided a critical lens through which we are now looking at the Israel-Iran War. Furthermore, there has been a long developing effort to cast conflicts between Israel and Palestine as the result of excessive aggression on the part of Israel. But understanding that Hamas’ attack was largely motivated by the desire to keep Saudi Arabia from joining the Abraham Accords casts the atrocities in a much different light.
From this perspective, October 7 looks not so much like retaliation for past aggressions, but more like state-sponsored terrorism designed to protect Iranian interests and power. Once we see the attack in this way, it reveals another critically important historical lens for understanding Israel’s response.
In effect, October 7 was Israel’s September 11. Like the terrorist attack on the World Trade Center, Hamas’ actions involved a horrific and inexcusable assault on peaceful civilians by a regime with a long history of violent aggression and a stated goal of dismantling Israel itself. Even more dangerously, this act originated not from an informally funded and loosely organized collection of terrorists, but rather from a country (Iran) that controls one of the largest and most valuable bases of oil reserves in the world and that uses those resources to fund aggressions, including the development of nuclear weapons.
Had we, or any other nation in the world, been subjected to the brutal attacks that Israel was, we would have responded in much the same way that they have.
November 5, 2024: DONALD TRUMP’S RE-ELECTION: We may never know to what extent the anti-Israel protests on many of America’s most prestigious campuses were fomented by Iranian agitators. But we do know these protests led to deep shifts in the American political landscape. Seeing October 7 as an act of state sponsored terrorism designed to prevent the balance of power in the Middle East from shifting away from Iran shines a harsh light on both the campus protests and on the failure of university leaders to protect: a) the safety and security of their Jewish students, b) the rights of other students to go about college life free from hostile interference, and c) campus property.
These failures have significantly eroded the moral authority of our elite universities and led prominent American’s to condemn and withdraw funding from these institutions. Congressional hearings led to the resignation and replacement of multiple university presidents, and many Jewish and other Americans shifted their political allegiance as a result of these events. While these shifts may not have been politically decisive, they clearly worked to Donald Trump’s benefit in winning re-election in 2024, which in turn set up a historic opportunity for Benjamin Netanyahu to re-align Israel with an American president and a political party who have long been decisively in their corner.
December 8, 2024: BASHAR AL-ASSAD FALLS
In addition to serving as a strike force against Israel, Hamas and Hezbollah also played an important role in propping up Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad, long one of Iran’s most important allies. It is unclear what exactly caused al-Assad’s regime to finally collapse in late 2024, but the weakening of Iran’s proxies combined with Israel’s direct attacks on Iranian military assets housed in Syria were, at the least, an important contributor. It is also clear that this development further isolated and made Iran even more vulnerable.
To summarize what we’ve covered so far: the Abraham Accords represented a historic re-alignment of select Arab nations with Israel (and, effectively, the United States) in opposition to Iran’s Axis of Resistance. The expectation that Saudi Arabia was about to join the Accords represented a threat Iran was willing to go to great lengths to deter, which in all probability precipitated both the brutal October 7 attack on Israeli citizens and Hamas’ decision to film and publish the related atrocities. Israel’s remarkable response crippled both Hamas and Hezbollah and, combined with the downfall of Syria’s leader, severely weakened and isolated Iran.
Coming in the midst of these tectonic shifts, Donald Trump’s re-election presented a unique opportunity for Benjamin Netanyahu and Israel to work with the new administration to finish what had started on October 7, 2023 by going after Iran.
COUNTDOWN TO THE ATTACK
February 4, 2025: HAND IN GLOVE
Donald Trump took office on January 20, 2025.
On February 4, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was the first foreign leader to meet with President Trump in the oval office. According to reports: in addition to discussing normalizing relations with Saudi Arabia, Netanyahu also reviewed Israel’s recent successes against Hamas and Hezbollah as well as developments with Iran’s nuclear weapons.
On this same day, Trump signed a National Security Memorandum titled, “Imposing Maximum Pressure on the Government of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Denying Iran All Paths to a Nuclear Weapon, and Countering Iran’s Malign Influence.”
There has since been much speculation about what level of coordination the Trump White House has had with Israel and to what extent Israel has influenced Trump as Netanyahu proceeded toward their June 12 attack on Iran. Both the meeting and Memorandum signed on February 4 and subsequent events support the idea that the U.S. and Israel have worked closely together from the very beginning of Trump’s presidency to rid Iran of its nuclear capabilities.
March: PRELUDE TO THE COUNTDOWN
On March 7, Trump made two important and, in all likelihood, interconnected announcements. In one announcement he disclosed sending a letter to Supreme Leader Ali Khamnenei that called for Iran to fully dismantle their nuclear program and end support for proxy organizations. In addition Trump’s letter imposed a strict two-month deadline (presumably from the beginning of formal negotiations) to reach agreement on these matters. Trump commented, “I’ve written them a letter saying, ‘I hope you’re going to negotiate because if we have to go militarily, it’s going to be a terrible thing.’”
On the same day, he also commented that he had told Saudi Arabia he would visit them if they committed to making $1 trillion of investments in the United States. Taken in context, my read of this is that Trump was already planning to go to the Middle East to help lay the groundwork for the coming negotiations with Iran; but, to turn an old phrase, he was also trying to pet three doves with one hand. One dove represented his interest in drumming up investments to stimulate our economy. Another involved creating excitement in the region for the potential of aligning with Israel and America. And the third represented the opportunity to have closed door discussions that would help him assess Arab leaders reaction to the events that were about to unfold.
Actual Saudi commitments of $600 billion ended up falling well short of Trump’s original demands, but he uncharacteristically decided to go anyway, which supports the idea that the real motivation behind the trip was something other than drumming up investments. Further, it appears that there were no prior indications that Trump’s first trip abroad would be to the Middle East, which also supports the notion that all of this was a part of a remarkably well choreographed effort between Trump and Netanyahu.
April: THE COUNTDOWN BEGINS
On April 2, Trump announced the Liberation Day Tariffs.
On April 3, he called Netanyahu and extended a surprise invitation to come to the White House, reportedly to discuss the tariffs.
After hastily rearranging his schedule, Netanyahu visited with Trump on April 7. This was the first visit with a foreign leader after the Liberation Day announcement. Trump and Netanyahu reportedly discussed tariffs, the war in Gaza, tensions with Iran, and broader Middle East relationships. Afterward, the White House canceled a previously scheduled joint press conference in favor of a smaller meeting with a select group of reporters.
Our trade with Israel represents less than 1% of our total trade deficit in goods. It is highly unlikely that tariffs were the real purpose for the meeting. A much more plausible explanation is that the meeting was in fact called to further coordinate strategy in advance of both Trump’s upcoming trip to the Middle East and the initiation of formal negotiations with Iran, which began shortly thereafter on April 12.
The sixty-day countdown mentioned in Trump’s previous letter had begun.
May: SHORING UP SUPPORT
From May 13 to the 16th, Trump made the first overseas trip of his second term to visit Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. By most accounts, this was a highly successful trip with the three countries each going to great lengths to honorably welcome the administration, make significant investment commitments, agree to large defense purchases, and enter into agreements on artificial intelligence, technology transfers and other important matters.
Many commentators criticized the administration for not meeting with Israel or including them in the discussions; and went on to draw the conclusion that this was a sign that the US and Israel were working largely independent of one another. As noted in a prior post, I believe that not engaging directly with Israel while on the trip was in all likelihood agreed to between Trump and Netanyahu in advance as the best way to approach key Arab nations without stirring resentments about Israel’s response to the October 7 attacks.
On May 27, The Times of Israel reported that Trump and Netanyahu had engaged in a “heated phone call last week over how to confront Iran.” The report went on to comment that this seemed to contradict “earlier claims that the two had reached a unified stance on preventing Tehran from acquiring a nuclear weapon.” According to the report, Trump told Netanyahu, “I want a diplomatic solution with the Iranians. I believe in my ability to make a good deal.” Netanyahu’s office denied there had been a tense conversation and said both men “agreed on the need to ensure that Iran does not obtain nuclear weapons.”
Trump subsequently sent Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem to meet with Netanyahu. Noem told Fox News that “President Trump specifically sent me here to speak with the prime minister about how negotiations are going and how important it is that we stay united and let this process play out.” All of which is consistent with the idea that the two countries were in fact coordinating their efforts, but that Netanyahu wanted to accelerate the timetable while Trump wanted to make sure his offer of a sixty day negotiation period was honored and given a full opportunity to work.
June: ATTACKs
On June 9, with the deadline for a negotiated settlement just three days away, Trump and Netanyahu held a phone call to discuss recent developments. In a subsequent press conference Trump mentioned that the call went very well but that Iran was being too tough in the negotiations and making unacceptable demands.
On June 10 the U.S. started removing non-essential personnel and dependents from the region.
On June 12, the sixty-day deadline lapsed and Israel attacked Iran.
On June 13, President Trump announced that he would give Iran up to two weeks to unconditionally surrender.
On June 21, Trump announced that the U.S. had bombed three of the key nuclear facilities controlled by what he called, “the number one state sponsor of terror.” He also announced that the three B-2 stealth bombers were back in safe air spaces and that the strikes were “a spectacular military success”; and thanked Prime Minister Netanyahu, commenting that they had “worked as a team as perhaps no team has ever worked before.”
Mr. Netanyahu praised President Trump and commented that America “has done what no other country on Earth could do,” and finished by remarking, “May God bless our unshakeable alliance, our unbreakable faith.”
Iran’s leader said he will not surrender. Based on recent events, he would be wise to reconsider.
Today we face important challenges, but none that are greater than those we have overcome time and again throughout our storied history. Here’s to hoping your day is as bright as America’s future.
- Todd, June 22, 2025
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